Bulls: Game 7 Preview

Everyone understands that this series has become a must watch, and I felt an obligation to give my two cents. Everybody without a rooting interest in this series is enjoying it much more than Chicago and Boston fans. I'll probably look back on this fondly, but for the time being, the amount of anxiety associated with these games is threatening to give me heart failure. Here are my top ten factors/matchups going into Game 7.

Honorable Mention: Kevin Garnett: You can’t be in a suit for six games and expect to play a factor in Game 7. If he’s in uniform, he’ll give the crowd a lift, but it’s not like the crowd needed any more motivation. If he plays, I expect him to be a sideshow and not much more.

10. The Other Starters: Glen Davis. Tyrus Thomas. John Salmons. Their contribution is welcome but not completely necessary. Big Baby Davis is a surprisingly reliable shooter and routinely makes 12-16 footers. His matchup against Tyrus has been fun to watch, and supposedly they’re childhood friends. Tyrus always makes a few plays. He is easily the best shot-blocker in this series. He probably has less of an impact because there have been so many jumpshots overall, but he’s good for at least one momentum-shifting block a game and a couple more key swats. Since his huge shots in Game 1, he hasn’t had a great offensive effect on the games overall. He faces up the basket rather than backing down and has a tendency to either get stopped going to the rim or finish poorly. Does anyone else think that with Thomas’ vertical, a 10-foot turnaround jumper would be unstoppable?

John Salmons is an offensive necessity for the Bulls. When shot aren’t falling, the Bulls can get some valuable points by having Salmons attack the rim. He has a tendency to throw up inexplicable three pointers with Pierce in his face, but these same threes go in with a high enough percentage to make it hard to complain. When Gordon is out, Salmons becomes the go to scorer on the Bulls.

9. Young Poise: Game 7, on the road. The Bulls have shown that they don’t back down from a challenge, and every game in Boston has been hotly contested. I don’t expect them to break down when the crowd is drowning out the 24-second clock, but it’ll be easy for the young players to get caught up in the atmosphere. Boston has a much larger veteran presence, but they need their young starters to play well. All of Chicago’s starters are pretty young; and while Gordon will be unfazed in his shooting and Noah will keep up his energy, Rose might unintentionally back down a bit and lose some aggression. If the Bulls ever get on a good run and manage to silence the crowd, the resulting swagger alone can carry them into a win.

8. Doc Rivers vs. Vinny Del Negro: Both coaches have made some questionable decisions, but Doc Rivers still has the edge. The rookie in Del Negro shows, and although he has been able to preserve his timeouts lately, his crunch time plays have resorted to giving Gordon the ball and letting him shoot. Doc has more last minute options, but if the first six games are any sign, the Celtics will know exactly who will have the ball with the clock running down. Unfortunately, this matchup is more about who makes fewer mistakes than anything else.

7. Joakim Noah vs. Kendrick Perkins: I was shocked that Ben Gordon kept the Bulls in Game 2, despite the Bulls horrific rebounding. Boston has the edge on the boards when Chicago Noah’s energy is invaluable and in any given game he makes two or three plays from sheer effort. His dunk was the defining moment in Game 6. Pierce didn’t want to foul Noah, but it looked to me like his body just gave out on him. More than a couple times, Noah has single handedly kept the Bulls in the game with huge defensive plays or offensive rebounds. doesn’t go small, and many times it comes down to this matchup.

Perkins owns the offensive glass. He shoots a high percentage because most of his points come from tip-ins. With no KG, he is irreplaceable in this series. He’s not a great shot blocker, but when he pairs with Big Baby, they clog the lanes. This series has been played around the perimeter, and Boston plays right into Chicago’s strengths because there have been almost no post-ups all series long. However, the rebounds and easy points from these two players always play a huge factor in the outcome of the games.

6. The Bench: Most unbelievable stat of Game 6? Brad Miller: 4 Turnovers, + 26. With 23 points, that means that for every point he scored, the Celtics scored ZERO. Miller has come into games, made a couple errors, and then either helped the Bulls build a lead or start a comeback. In six games his +/- has been +9, +19, -14, +21, +1, +26. He easily leads the Bulls in this category. My theory is that he gives the Celtics a false sense of security and has the ability to slow down time. The Boston big men think to themselves, “Oh. It’s only Brad Miller.” They stop trying so hard on the boards. The entire game slows down, and Brad Miller’s ability to manipulate time prevents defenders from reacting while he lumbers towards the basket. How else can we explain that while he took three steps towards the basket from the 3-point line, Rondo only made it as far as Miller’s face? Watch the replay. Rondo is clearly moving at half speed. That’s why the league didn’t suspend Rondo. He was actually making a play on the ball, but got caught in the wake of Miller’s space-time continuum.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TzGrzs7-AI

The Chicago bench is clearly better than Boston’s. Stephon Marbury has had mixed results, and all Boston fans think there has been too much Tony Allen in this series. Brian Scalabrine and Eddie House have connected on some big shots but are hardly go to options. The Bench will be especially important in Game 7, as the number of minutes in this series is sure to have produced some fatigue in the starters, and the Boston starters have seen much more time than the Chicago starters.

When Hinrich is effective offensively, he is incredibly valuable for the Bulls. And can you believe that he’s the best defender in this series? With Pierce tired, nobody has been more consistent on defense. He has been incredibly versatile, hounding Allen and facing up the bigger Pierce. Kirk Hinrich could start for half the teams in the league and often plays starter minutes.

5. Paul Pierce: He has to be exhausted. After carrying the Celtics for the past few months, he was a smaller factor than expected in this series. His scoring output has been pretty consistent, but the only game he really had an impact on was Game 5 when he proved unstoppable in the clutch. After playing a triple OT game less than 48 hours before Game 7’s tipoff, he needs to be feeling it. If Pierce is in his best shape for Game 7, he’ll demand the ball and take it straight to the Bulls. But I wouldn’t count on it.

4. The Refs: They’ve been consistent; I’ll give them that. Game 1, the Bulls won in spite of the referees, and in Game 2, the Refs overcame a huge Ben Gordon game to give the game to Boston. These refs have given the home team every edge, and after their performance in Game 5, I was furious that Game 6 was actually called pretty fairly. The word is that the league purposely assigned a certain crew to Game 6 to prevent it from getting out of hand. Let’s hope the same group officiates Game 7 so the Bulls have a fighting chance.

3. Rajon Rondo vs. Derrick Rose: On any given possession, the ball starts in the hands of one of these two. Rondo has shown that he’s the craftier and more experienced of the two, and his fingerprints were all over the first five games. In all six games, he has only 11 turnovers; Rose has 32. He was taking confident jumpshots and was constant factor on the offensive boards. But after Doc chewed him out for his bonehead foul on Hinrich, Rondo disappeared. His confidence was shaken, and he wasn’t a factor for the rest of that game. Rose didn’t even guard him when he was out on the 3-point line. The box score says that he had 19 assists in Game 6, but it’s my personal opinion that he was hardly effective. It’s not hard to rack up assists when all you have to do is pass it to Ray Allen, and indeed, 11 of those assists were from Allen scores.

Rose has all the tools to be one of the best point guards in the league…next year. He clearly lacks a killer instinct, and although he has taken some big shots, he would rather defer to Salmons or Gordon. He has a tendency to overdribble and gets the ball stolen too often. He’s not defensively experienced, although his blocks have been the highlight of this series for me, and he gets caught going the wrong way too often. He lacks timing as a help defender.

For Game 7, I give Rose the edge since Rondo might still be a little shaken. The crowd can easily get Rondo going, but Rose has shown some real maturity in this series. Do the Bulls lose if Rose has a huge game? These next two guys might have something to say about that.

2. Ray Allen vs. Ben Gordon: Nobody talks about the Gordon hamstring injury. BG was supposed to be day to day after Game 4 but came out in Game 5 pretty healthy. Is this being disregarded because of how Gordon has looked? I’m not sure, but after a combined 10-35 effort in Games 5-6, it’s safe to say Gordon isn’t the same. I realized I’ve never seen that much of Ray Allen, and he has proved to me how good he is. He’s better than Ben Gordon simply because he’s less streaky and more disciplined. Gordon can score from anywhere; but when his shot’s not falling, Vinny Del Negro needs to be able to tell Gordon that he needs to keep shooting but to stop putting up garbage. That being said, BG guards Allen better. Clearly, Allen had trouble following the younger Gordon off screens in Game 5 and subsequently fouled out. I was actually glad when Gordon fouled out in Game 6 after his atrocious shooting. Either one can put up big numbers, but the magnitude of their shots has been the single biggest offensive factor in this series.

1. Home court advantage: This hasn't proven to be as important in this series as expected, but in a fairly even matchup, it’s the biggest disparity. The Boston crowd will be in this game, and if games 1-5 are any indication, the refs will be swayed in favor of the home team. Home court is the biggest advantage the Celtics have, and it’s the biggest hill the Bulls will have to overcome if they’re to win the game. The crowd is going to be going off from the opening tip; and the Bulls can get off to a double digit lead, but the crowd is still going to be there.

Additional Game Notes: As a Chicago fan, I don’t want to see a close game. I want to see the Bulls blow out the Celtics and rumble into the second round. I understand that this is an incredibly entertaining series, but I’ve had about as many overtimes as I can take. I want to see Rose break Rondo’s ankles and Ben Gordon put up 50. I want to see Aaron Gray and Linton Johnson in this game with five minutes left. Here’s to Chicago crushing Boston.